Hyperliquid price deviations: open vs closed
Compare mark-to-oracle basis and impact width while the underlying US exchange is open versus closed.
57markets covered
History accumulating1 archived observation · 2026-07-12 to 2026-07-12
Open lab →Experimental data research
Hyperliquid research labs
Auditable experiments built from Hyperliquid market data and timestamped Spottrench snapshots. We publish missing history as missing, never as a back-test.
Experimental section. Every page publishes its method, coverage and limitations; history accumulates only from real timestamped snapshots and is never back-filled.
Available experiments
Hyperliquid COT: whale positioning report
Long/short concentration, exposure shifts and the largest visible positions of tracked wallets.
51.1%of whale notional is long$7.89B in tracked open positions
History accumulating1 archived observation · 2026-07-12 to 2026-07-12
Open lab →Whale edge: signal performance study
Forward returns after documented whale imbalances, with null outcomes kept visible.
16markets with a strong whale biasstrongest bias: SPX, 90% short
History accumulating1 archived observation · 2026-07-12 to 2026-07-12
Open lab →Forecast ledger: track record and calibration
Immutable forecasts, due-date outcomes and calibration without reconstructed wins.
263active forecasts today▲ 52 · 70 · ▼ 141
History accumulating1 archived observation · 2026-07-12 to 2026-07-12
Open lab →Method
Each lab has an explicit question, a fixed allowlist of input fields and a visible history state. Results are calculated only from saved observations; unavailable due-date outcomes stay null.
Frequently asked questions
What is this section?
Open research experiments on Hyperliquid market data: live price deviations versus official exchanges, whale positioning, whale-signal performance and a public ledger of our own forecasts. Every experiment states its method and limitations on its page.
Where does the data come from?
The Hyperliquid public API (prices, positions, open interest) plus our daily collector snapshots of active wallets. Reference prices for tokenized stocks come from Yahoo Finance. History is archived once per day and never back-filled.
Why are some values empty?
By design. An outcome is published only when a real archived snapshot exists for its due date. Missing observations stay empty instead of being interpolated — that is what makes the results auditable.
Research limits
Experimental statistics are not a recommendation or financial advice. Correlation does not establish causation, tracked wallets are only a sample, and past relationships may disappear.