Experimental data research
Whale edge: signal performance study
A falsifiable study of returns after whale-positioning imbalances, scored only against snapshots that were actually archived later.
Experimental section. Every page publishes its method, coverage and limitations; history accumulates only from real timestamped snapshots and is never back-filled.
Qualifying biases today
Markets that currently pass the study threshold: 60%+ of tracked whale notional on one side. Each becomes a ledger observation scored against the +1 and +7 day snapshots.
Long bias
Display filter matches the whales page: at least 15 wallets and $1M in open positions. The ledger itself records every qualifying bias. · Full whale overweight page →
Research snapshot
Key measurements
- Evaluated horizons
- 0
Observed records
50 records shown.
“Return” and “Hit” fill in one and seven days after each bias observation, once the archive has the follow-up snapshots — early rows simply have not matured yet.
First evaluations as the archive matures: 1 day — 2026-07-13 · 7 days — 2026-07-19.
| Date | Ticker | Whale bias | Long share | Price | Return 1d | Hit 1d | Return 7d | Hit 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | GBP | BUY | 100.0% | $1.342 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | JP225 | BUY | 100.0% | $68,661 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | BANANA | SELL | 0.0% | $3.467 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | BIRD | SELL | 0.0% | $3.116 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | GME | SELL | 1.4% | $21.793 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | IBM | SELL | 6.5% | $286.82 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | SNX | BUY | 91.7% | $0.2422 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | REZ | SELL | 8.9% | $0.00259 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | VINE | BUY | 91.1% | $0.00925 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | MANTA | SELL | 8.9% | $0.05894 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | DKNG | SELL | 9.4% | $26.335 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | COST | SELL | 9.5% | $915.46 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | SPX | SELL | 9.8% | $0.37623 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | ZEN | SELL | 10.1% | $4.239 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | NFLX | SELL | 10.4% | $73.262 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | PALLADIUM | SELL | 11.0% | $1,267 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | PENGU | SELL | 11.9% | $0.00607 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | BSV | SELL | 12.1% | $13.469 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | DYM | SELL | 13.4% | $0.01562 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | RIVN | SELL | 13.6% | $17.215 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | ASML | SELL | 13.9% | $1,793.9 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | KAS | SELL | 16.4% | $0.02871 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | TURBO | SELL | 17.5% | $0.00084 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | BERA | SELL | 17.8% | $0.19234 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | SUPER | SELL | 17.9% | $0.08658 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | PURRDAT | SELL | 19.0% | $7.808 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | TIA | SELL | 19.1% | $0.40199 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | GMT | SELL | 19.4% | $0.00766 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | PLATINUM | SELL | 19.5% | $1,623 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | NOW | SELL | 19.6% | $106.69 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | QNT | SELL | 19.9% | $70.139 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | WDC | SELL | 20.0% | $577.72 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | LAYER | SELL | 21.6% | $0.0661 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | EBAY | BUY | 78.2% | $117.68 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | ZM | SELL | 21.8% | $89.846 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | DASH | SELL | 21.8% | $34.885 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | NXPC | SELL | 22.5% | $0.26117 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | ARB | SELL | 22.7% | $0.09381 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | EWZ | SELL | 23.7% | $36.781 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | ONDO | SELL | 25.0% | $0.32518 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | STRC | BUY | 74.7% | $88.313 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | BABY | SELL | 25.3% | $0.01304 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | GOAT | BUY | 74.5% | $0.01383 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | MINIMAX | SELL | 25.5% | $35.088 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | EWT | SELL | 25.9% | $106.67 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | KR200 | SELL | 27.0% | $1,192 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | TRB | BUY | 73.0% | $15.066 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | TSLA | SELL | 27.3% | $407.85 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | FOGO | SELL | 28.1% | $0.0097 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | ICP | SELL | 28.5% | $2.256 | — | — | — | — |
Sources and coverage
Primary market data: Hyperliquid public API. Historical comparisons use only archived Spottrench snapshots that actually exist.
Calculation method
Each qualifying imbalance is timestamped before its forward-return window. Results use the saved due-date price; missing future snapshots remain unscored rather than backfilled.
Snapshot method
Freezes a long bias at 60%+ whale notional share and a short bias at 40%-; evaluates it only on exact +1 and +7 day snapshots.
Frequently asked questions
What exactly does this study test?
Whether a strong whale imbalance — 60%+ of tracked notional on one side of a market — predicts the direction of price moves one and seven days later. The bias is frozen the day it is observed, before the outcome is known.
How is a “hit” counted?
A hit means the sign of the return at exactly +1 or +7 days matched the bias direction. If the archive is missing the follow-up snapshot, the observation stays unscored — nothing is interpolated.
When will results appear?
The first 1-day scores arrive a day after the first archived observation, 7-day scores a week after. The summary hit rate is withheld until at least five scored observations exist.
If the hit rate is high, should I copy whales?
Not by itself. The sample can be selection-biased, trading costs and funding are not modeled, and correlation in a sample is not causation. Treat this as a public experiment, not a strategy.
Known limitations
- The tracked-wallet sample may be selection-biased. Costs, slippage, funding and overlapping observations can materially reduce any apparent edge.
- Neutral observations are not forced into long or short labels.
- Missing exact future snapshots remain null and are excluded from hit-rate calculations.
- Association in this tracked-wallet sample is not evidence that whales caused later returns.
- At least five evaluated horizon observations are required before status becomes ok.
Experimental statistics are not a recommendation or financial advice. Correlation does not establish causation, tracked wallets are only a sample, and past relationships may disappear.