Experimental data research
Hyperliquid price deviations: open vs closed
Do tokenized US equities deviate more when the underlying exchange is closed? This lab compares absolute mark-to-oracle basis and impact-price width by session.
Experimental section. Every page publishes its method, coverage and limitations; history accumulates only from real timestamped snapshots and is never back-filled.
Deviation right now: Hyperliquid vs official market
Hyperliquid trades around the clock while the reference market has sessions. For every comparable market this table shows the current Hyperliquid price, the latest official price and the gap between them, next to where tracked whales are positioned.
64 comparable markets · mean |deviation| 0.70% · max 3.84% · Response generated: 2026-07-12 20:26 UTC
Right now: markets in session deviate 1.26% on average (8), closed markets 0.62% (56).
| Asset | Hyperliquid | Official market | Deviation | Session | Whales L / S |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude Oil BRENTOIL | $78.926 | $76.01 | +3.84% | Open | 55 / 30 |
| WTI Crude Oil CL | $73.987 | $71.41 | +3.61% | Open | 91 / 30 |
| Energy Sector ETF XLE | $56.392 | $55.08 | +2.38% | Closed | 5 / 8 |
| EWZ EWZ | $36.763 | $35.93 | +2.32% | Closed | 3 / 5 |
| SanDisk SNDK | $1,957.7 | $1,915.92 | +2.18% | Closed | 59 / 69 |
| Qualcomm QCOM | $186.18 | $189.16 | -1.58% | Closed | 7 / 16 |
| CoreWeave CRWV | $90.27 | $88.88 | +1.56% | Closed | 16 / 22 |
| Rivian RIVN | $17.223 | $17.48 | -1.47% | Closed | 9 / 6 |
| Marvell MRVL | $238.76 | $235.81 | +1.25% | Closed | 33 / 37 |
| Hims & Hers HIMS | $33.969 | $34.38 | -1.20% | Closed | 12 / 13 |
| MicroStrategy MSTR | $95.726 | $94.64 | +1.15% | Closed | 25 / 32 |
| Circle CRCL | $66.885 | $66.14 | +1.13% | Closed | 49 / 32 |
| Intel INTC | $110.92 | $109.84 | +0.98% | Closed | 43 / 39 |
| Western Digital WDC | $577.22 | $582.585 | -0.92% | Closed | 9 / 7 |
| Silver SILVER | $59.629 | $60.165 | -0.89% | Open | 54 / 27 |
| Arm Holdings ARM | $326.12 | $323.39 | +0.84% | Closed | 15 / 13 |
| EWT EWT | $107.08 | $106.19 | +0.84% | Closed | 7 / 6 |
| Nokia NOK | $12.338 | $12.44 | -0.82% | Closed | 9 / 7 |
| NVIDIA NVDA | $212.64 | $210.96 | +0.80% | Closed | 52 / 69 |
| TSMC TSM | $437.56 | $434.11 | +0.79% | Closed | 18 / 15 |
| ServiceNow NOW | $106.87 | $107.71 | -0.78% | Closed | 5 / 5 |
| Robinhood HOOD | $112.75 | $111.97 | +0.70% | Closed | 27 / 29 |
| Nikkei 225 JP225 | $69,005 | $68,557.73 | +0.65% | Closed | 4 / 1 |
| Rocket Lab RKLB | $81.568 | $81.04 | +0.65% | Closed | 19 / 15 |
| GameStop GME | $21.818 | $21.68 | +0.64% | Closed | 3 / 14 |
| DraftKings DKNG | $26.326 | $26.475 | -0.56% | Closed | 4 / 6 |
| Alibaba BABA | $112.94 | $112.33 | +0.54% | Closed | 14 / 15 |
| Nebius NBIS | $220.8 | $219.65 | +0.52% | Closed | 36 / 32 |
| Palladium PALLADIUM | $1,269.7 | $1,276.3 | -0.52% | Open | 5 / 5 |
| Dell DELL | $432.76 | $434.97 | -0.51% | Closed | 9 / 8 |
| Coinbase COIN | $159.84 | $159.07 | +0.48% | Closed | 12 / 16 |
| BlackBerry BB | $10.918 | $10.97 | -0.47% | Closed | 34 / 23 |
| Broadcom AVGO | $398.08 | $399.97 | -0.47% | Closed | 15 / 10 |
| IBM IBM | $286.36 | $287.56 | -0.42% | Closed | 5 / 8 |
| Microsoft MSFT | $383.51 | $385.1 | -0.41% | Closed | 29 / 41 |
| URNM URNM | $53.494 | $53.29 | +0.38% | Closed | 10 / 8 |
| Natural Gas NATGAS | $2.929 | $2.94 | -0.38% | Open | 15 / 10 |
| Oracle ORCL | $141.16 | $140.64 | +0.37% | Closed | 32 / 22 |
| Platinum PLATINUM | $1,623.3 | $1,629 | -0.35% | Open | 6 / 5 |
| Meta Platforms META | $671.42 | $669.21 | +0.33% | Closed | 49 / 35 |
| Micron MU | $982.43 | $979.3 | +0.32% | Closed | 116 / 84 |
| Alphabet (Google) GOOGL | $358.3 | $357.18 | +0.31% | Closed | 50 / 40 |
| EWJ EWJ | $94.829 | $94.55 | +0.30% | Closed | 5 / 8 |
| eBay EBAY | $117.5 | $117.2 | +0.26% | Closed | 2 / 3 |
| Zoom ZM | $89.536 | $89.76 | -0.25% | Closed | 3 / 3 |
| Applied Materials AMAT | $604 | $602.5 | +0.25% | Closed | 6 / 7 |
| Gold GOLD | $4,103.9 | $4,113.7 | -0.24% | Open | 69 / 38 |
| Copper COPPER | $6.296 | $6.282 | +0.23% | Open | 20 / 18 |
| Eli Lilly LLY | $1,190.9 | $1,188.58 | +0.20% | Closed | 12 / 16 |
| EWY EWY | $183.87 | $183.52 | +0.19% | Closed | 16 / 20 |
| Apple AAPL | $314.73 | $315.32 | -0.19% | Closed | 36 / 19 |
| AMD AMD | $558.92 | $557.89 | +0.18% | Closed | 25 / 30 |
| S&P 500 SP500 | $7,563 | $7,575.39 | -0.16% | Closed | 68 / 48 |
| Netflix NFLX | $73.262 | $73.37 | -0.15% | Closed | 7 / 10 |
| British Pound GBP | $1.341 | $1.339 | +0.14% | Closed | 2 / 0 |
| Semiconductor ETF SMH | $610.35 | $611.03 | -0.11% | Closed | 12 / 8 |
| Palantir PLTR | $126.65 | $126.79 | -0.11% | Closed | 14 / 28 |
| Euro EUR | $1.142 | $1.141 | +0.10% | Closed | 0 / 8 |
| Costco COST | $917.06 | $916.25 | +0.09% | Closed | 5 / 6 |
| Amazon AMZN | $245.2 | $245.34 | -0.06% | Closed | 37 / 26 |
| KR200 KR200 | $1,197.2 | $1,196.69 | +0.04% | Closed | 2 / 4 |
| ASML ASML | $1,796.7 | $1,797.32 | -0.03% | Closed | 6 / 9 |
| Blackstone BX | $123.11 | $123.09 | +0.02% | Closed | 3 / 5 |
| Tesla TSLA | $407.72 | $407.76 | -0.01% | Closed | 26 / 36 |
While the reference market is closed, the deviation is measured against its last official close — that gap is what the next session will reconcile. Reference quotes: Yahoo Finance, cached for a few minutes.
Session definition
OPEN
Weekdays 04:00-20:00 America/New_York. Premarket 04:00-09:30 explicitly counts as open.
CLOSED
Weekdays outside the open window and all weekends.
US holidays and exceptional exchange closures are not excluded, so a holiday weekday can be classified as OPEN.
Open vs closed sessions (archive)
Accumulating history: the open-vs-closed comparison needs snapshots from both sessions (1 so far). The live table above already works.
Sources and coverage
Primary market data: Hyperliquid public API. Historical comparisons use only archived Spottrench snapshots that actually exist.
Calculation method
Only reviewed US-listed xyz markets are included. Saved observations are split into OPEN and CLOSED windows, then the mean absolute mark-to-oracle basis and quoted impact width are compared.
Snapshot method
Compares HIP-3 mark-to-oracle basis and quoted impact width between reviewed US-session markets during open and closed windows.
Frequently asked questions
Why does the Hyperliquid price differ from the official exchange?
Hyperliquid trades around the clock while the underlying exchange has sessions. Outside the session the gap is measured against the last official close, so it reflects everything that happened since — news, crypto-market moves, futures — that the exchange has not yet priced in.
How is the deviation calculated?
(Hyperliquid price − reference price) / reference price, in percent. Positive means Hyperliquid trades above the latest official price. During the session the reference is near-real-time; outside it, the official close.
How fresh is this data?
Hyperliquid prices come from our cache of about 15 seconds; reference quotes are cached for a few minutes. The session archive stores two readings per day, so the open-versus-closed comparison builds up over weeks.
Can this gap be traded?
This page is descriptive. A gap can close in either direction, costs and borrow are not modeled, and a deviation is not a mispricing by itself. Nothing here is investment advice.
Known limitations
- The calendar does not exclude US holidays or exceptional closures. Rolling 24-hour volume is not session volume, and small samples are descriptive only.
- OPEN means weekdays 04:00-20:00 America/New_York; premarket 04:00-09:30 is explicitly OPEN.
- The classifier does not exclude US holidays or exceptional exchange closures.
- Only the manually reviewed US-listed xyz allowlist is aggregated; unknown HIP-3 markets are excluded.
- dayNtlVlm is rolling 24-hour volume, not volume generated inside a classified session.
- Small sample comparisons are descriptive and do not establish price leadership or causality.
Experimental statistics are not a recommendation or financial advice. Correlation does not establish causation, tracked wallets are only a sample, and past relationships may disappear.